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Breaking the Path of Institutional Development? Alternatives to the New Determinism

Badia Fiesolana, Istituto Universitario Europeo, Via dei Roccettini 9 50016 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI), Italy email:Colin.crouch{at}iue.it

Henry Farrell

Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Sidney Smith Hall, Room 3018, 100 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G3, Canada email:farrell{at}utsc.utoronto.ca

The concept of path dependence is being used in highly deterministic ways in neo-institutionalist analysis, so that studies using this framework have dif.culty in accounting for, or predicting, change. However, the original Polya urn model from which pathdependence theory draws predicts that alternative paths will be possible. It can then be argued that actors will be able to use these when they perceive a need to change. This article seeks to capture this possibility through accommodating a Bayesian parametric decision-maker interacting with an environment. This makes it possible to examine how change may involve such processes as: the use of past or redundant institutional repertoires; transfer of experience across action spaces; or from other agents, through networks of structured relationships; the emergence of perceived ‘one best’ solutions. This approach points to the need to change how typologies are used in neo-institutionalist research, so that those features of cases that do not .t the pre-conceived framework of a type are not disregarded as ‘noise’, but properly evaluated as potential resources for change.

Key Words: Bayesian • innovation • neo-institutionalism • path dependence • redundancy

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